Markets/Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$5

Liquidity$67K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market, with a current YES price of 1%, matters as it quantifies a minuscule probability for Alireza Arafi assuming the role of head of state in Iran by the end of 2026, amidst a geopolitical landscape where related markets indicate no significant expectation of immediate conflict resolution. The current price aligns with the FM Estimate, suggesting market consensus on a highly improbable outcome.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets17 markets

17 deadline markets. Market implies ~15% chance none resolve YES.

Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end

Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 202

61%

Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of

Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026

Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of

Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.9pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5 has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469758