ForecastMind
Markets/Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Share on X

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Market Price

1%YES
99%NO

FM Estimate

1%
Vol 24h$5
Liquidity$67K
Bid / Ask1% / 1%
Spread0.10pp
ClosesDec 31, 2026
Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market, with a current YES price of 1%, matters as it quantifies a minuscule probability for Alireza Arafi assuming the role of head of state in Iran by the end of 2026, amidst a geopolitical landscape where related markets indicate no significant expectation of immediate conflict resolution. The current price aligns with the FM Estimate, suggesting market consensus on a highly improbable outcome.

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets17 markets

17 deadline markets. Market implies ~15% chance none resolve YES.

Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end

Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 202

61%
Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of

Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026

8%

Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of

Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026

1%

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate
-0.9pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5 has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469758