Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$184K
Liquidity
$32K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
2026
29 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
16% YES
Mar 2, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Mar 3, 2026
Biggest move: -11.0pp
16% → 5%
Mar 3, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $184K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469758
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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