Markets/Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

13%YES

87%NO

Volume 24h

$839

Liquidity

$71K

Bid / Ask

12% / 14%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-11.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

24% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

12% YES — lowest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Current

13% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 13%99%

Buy YES@ 13¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 87¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $839 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676742