Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
37% / 38%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
38%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
41% YES
Mar 25, 2026
Current
36% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 25, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-25). "Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1663419
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