Markets/Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

Market Price

2%YES

98%NO

FM Estimate

1.6%

Vol 24h$330K

Liquidity$25K

Bid / Ask1% / 2%

Spread0.60pp

ClosesJun 6, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $330K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.60pp. The market closes on June 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1087766