Markets/Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:33 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

93%YES

7%NO

Volume 24h

$589

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

92% / 94%

Spread

2.70pp

Expert Signal

93%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

96% YES

Mar 4, 2026

Current

94% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 93%99%

Buy YES@ 93¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 7¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?" at 93% YES / 7% NO. In the last 24 hours, $589 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 93%. The bid-ask spread is 2.70 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 93%, NO 7%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1285584