Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
8%YES
92%NO
Vol 24h$40
Liquidity$12K
Bid / Ask7% / 8%
Spread1.00pp
ClosesJun 30, 2026
Wikipedia Attention
Price History · 30 days
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MarketFM Estimate
+0.0pp
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $40 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-20). "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1999853