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Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

4%YES
96%NO
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$6K
Bid / Ask4% / 5%
Spread0.40pp
ClosesJun 30, 2026

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
+0.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-21). "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1999854