Markets/Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES

100%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-34.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

35% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

64%

Mar 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 4, 2026

Biggest move: +37.5pp

40% → 78%

Mar 3, 2026

Peak probability

78% YES — highest in period

Mar 3, 2026

Current

0% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 8, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will another country strike Iran by March 7?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will another country strike Iran by March 7?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485135

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