Markets/Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:38 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

52%YES

49%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

46% / 57%

Spread

11.00pp

Expert Signal

52%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-8.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

61% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

50% YES — lowest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: -8.5pp

60% → 51%

Mar 16, 2026

Current

53% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 52%99%

Buy YES@ 52¢

Edge

+1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 49¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?" at 52% YES / 48% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 52%, NO 48%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1301184