Markets/Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:31 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

48%YES

53%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

46% / 49%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

48%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-11.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

60% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

26% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Feb 28, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 14, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 15, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -30.0pp

56% → 26%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

83% YES — highest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Current

48% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 48%99%

Buy YES@ 48¢

Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 53¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?" at 48% YES / 52% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 48%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 48%, NO 52%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1004797