Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
36% / 41%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
39%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
35% YES
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: +7.0pp
39% → 46%
Mar 22, 2026
Peak probability
48% YES — highest in period
Mar 23, 2026
Current
43% YES (+2.5pp recent)
Mar 24, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1663471
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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