Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
44% / 49%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
47%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
38% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Trough probability
13% YES — lowest in period
Mar 5, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
54%
Mar 18, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
43%
Mar 20, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Mar 21, 2026
Biggest move: -23.5pp
37% → 13%
Mar 5, 2026
Peak probability
63% YES — highest in period
Mar 18, 2026
Current
48% YES (-3.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.1%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1004882
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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