Markets/Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC

Closes July 20, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$764K

Bid / Ask

11% / 11%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

11%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

11% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 89¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on July 20, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/558938