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Markets/Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
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Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

52%YES
48%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

48% / 57%

Spread

9.00pp

Expert Signal

52%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?" at 52% YES / 48% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 52%. The bid-ask spread is 9.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 52%, NO 48%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1819216

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+12.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

70% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Biggest move: +13.0pp

70% → 83%

Apr 2, 2026

Peak probability

83% YES — highest in period

Apr 2, 2026

Current

82% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 52%99%
Buy YES@ 52¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 48¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this