Markets/Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:40 AM UTC

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

19%YES

81%NO

Volume 24h

$29K

Liquidity

$323K

Bid / Ask

22% / 22%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

19%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+10.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: +5.2pp

13% → 18%

Mar 16, 2026

Peak probability

22% YES — highest in period

Mar 23, 2026

Current

22% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 19%99%

Buy YES@ 19¢

-2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 81¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.3%

½ Kelly1.2%

Buy NO—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658941