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Markets/Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?
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Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Closes May 31, 2026

Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

4%YES
96%NO

Volume 24h

$419K

Liquidity

$327K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

4%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence0%
methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 4%99%
Buy YES@ 4¢
Edge

+11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%
½ Kelly0.2%
Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+11.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $419K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on May 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/566146