Markets/Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$10K

Liquidity$55K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

Polymarket's "Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" contract currently trades at 0%, reflecting a complete lack of conviction in her ascent to the premiership. This static pricing, unchanged this week, stands in stark contrast to heightened market volatility as indicated by the VIX at 18.2900, up 7.71%. Traders collectively price Shaked's chances of becoming the next Prime Minister as negligible, suggesting a strong consensus that current political dynamics do not favor her leadership.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets29 markets

29 deadline markets. Combined YES = 190% — 90pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of

Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel

46%

Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Isr

44%

Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of I

Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.3pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/682717