Markets/Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:32 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

0%YES

100%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$12K

Bid / Ask

0% / 1%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 16, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

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+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 1%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/682717

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