Markets/Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Polymarket Price

43%YES

57%NO

Volume 24h

$175

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

40% / 45%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

43%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

48% YES

Mar 6, 2026

Current

46% YES (-1.5pp recent)

Mar 6, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 43%99%

Buy YES@ 43¢

Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $175 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/690693

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