Markets/Will Beatriz Haddad Maia be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Will Beatriz Haddad Maia be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$29K

Liquidity$26K

Bid / Ask0% / 1%

Spread0.40pp

ClosesJul 12, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market holds significance as it is the last major sporting event market to resolve in 2026, making its current 0% YES price reflective of the collective pricing across sibling markets. The strong divergence in prices among related chess tournament markets indicates significant uncertainty and a wide range of perceived probabilities for those events, which may inform future market dynamics.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Beatriz Haddad Maia be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $29K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.40pp. The market closes on July 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Beatriz Haddad Maia be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1088140