Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Market Price
FM Estimate
1.9%Belgium's 2% implied probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup reflects a low but not zero chance, aligning with the FM Estimate. This prediction matters now as it quantifies the market's current assessment of Belgium's potential success amidst related markets showing 100% probabilities for other, albeit unrelated, events or outcomes.
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
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30 deadline markets. Combined YES = 246% — 146pp excess suggests collective overpricing.
Belgium
Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Price History · 30 days
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. The market closes on July 20, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/558946