Markets/Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Market Price

2%YES

98%NO

FM Estimate

1.9%

Vol 24h$53K

Liquidity$2.6M

Bid / Ask2% / 2%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesJul 20, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets30 markets

30 deadline markets. Combined YES = 246% — 146pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup

94%

Europe

Europe win the 2026 FIFA World Cup

72%

Belgium

Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $53K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on July 20, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/558946