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Markets/Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
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Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Market Price

24%YES
76%NO

FM Estimate

21%

Gap Signal

↓Overpriced
2.9pp
Vol 24h$61
Liquidity$16K
Bid / Ask23% / 25%
Spread2.00pp
ClosesNov 3, 2026
Macro fundamentals-5.5pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp

medium confidence · 2 signals

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets17 markets

17 deadline markets. Market implies ~8% chance none resolve YES.

Tom Begich

Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election

37%

Bernadette Wilson

Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor elect

24%
Nancy Dahlstrom

Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor electio

11%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

No historical data yet
Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket24%anchor
PredictIt——

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" at 24% YES / 76% NO. In the last 24 hours, $61 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on November 3, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-30). "Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 24%, NO 76%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/635012