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Markets/Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?
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Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?

Closes April 6, 2026

Polymarket Price

13%YES
88%NO

Volume 24h

$11K

Liquidity

$31K

Bid / Ask

12% / 14%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

13%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Event Distribution

Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30?

March

Full event →
above $60,000 on March 30?
100%
above $62,000 on March 30?
100%
above $66,000 on March 30?
100%
above $64,000 on March 30?
100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30?
100%
above $60,000 on March 31?
100%
above $62,000 on March 31?
99%
above $60,000 on April 1?
99%
above $64,000 on March 31?
97%
above $66,000 on March 31?
80%
above $68,000 on March 31?
34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?
12%
above $70,000 on March 31?
6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?
1%
above $72,000 on March 31?
1%
above $74,000 on March 31?
0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on March 30?
0%
above $70,000 on March 30?
0%
above $68,000 on March 30?
0%
above $72,000 on March 30?
0%
less than $62,000 on March 30?
0%
above $78,000 on March 31?
0%
above $76,000 on March 31?
0%
above $74,000 on March 30?
0%
above $76,000 on March 30?
0%
above $80,000 on March 30?
0%
above $80,000 on March 31?
0%
above $78,000 on March 30?
0%

28 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

12% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 13%99%
Buy YES@ 13¢
Edge

+4.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 88¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 13%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 6, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1786348

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.