Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?
Closes March 23, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$59K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
18% / 21%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
19%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
March
24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
21% YES
Mar 16, 2026
Trough probability
11% YES — lowest in period
Mar 17, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
51%
Mar 19, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
52%
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: +28.0pp
14% → 42%
Mar 18, 2026
Peak probability
72% YES — highest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Current
21% YES (+1.5pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?" at 19% YES / 81% NO. In the last 24 hours, $59K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 19%, NO 81%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1603559
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