Markets/Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 01:49 AM UTC

Closes July 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

49%YES

51%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$402K

Bid / Ask

49% / 49%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

49%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

49% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

49% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 1, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 49%99%

Buy YES@ 49¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 51¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?" at 49% YES / 51% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 49%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on July 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 49%, NO 51%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/540844

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