Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?

Market Price

2%YES

98%NO

FM Estimate

1.8%

Vol 24h$2K

Liquidity$73K

Bid / Ask2% / 2%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesJan 1, 2027

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets26 markets

26 deadline markets. Combined YES = 411% — 311pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

by December 31, 2026

Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026

70%

by December 31, 2026

Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026

45%

by December 31, 2026

Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1393070