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Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?
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Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES
99%NO

Volume 24h

$44K

Liquidity

$27K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.30pp

Expert Signal

2%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp
confidence50%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?

March

Full event →
between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?
54%
between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 22?
37%
between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?
7%
between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 22?
2%
$78,000 March 16-22?
1%
between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?
1%
between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 22?
0%
above $78,000 on March 23?
0%
$80,000 March 16-22?
0%
above $80,000 on March 23?
0%
between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 22?
0%
between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 22?
0%
between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22?
0%
$78,000 on March 21?
0%
greater than $80,000 on March 22?
0%
above $78,000 on March 21?
0%
above $80,000 on March 21?
0%

17 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

-40.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

41% YES

Mar 16, 2026

Trough probability

1% YES — lowest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

47%

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -22.0pp

64% → 42%

Mar 17, 2026

Peak probability

64% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 1%99%
Buy YES@ 1¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $44K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1603551

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Venue Divergence

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Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.

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Event Cluster

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