Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
Closes January 1, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$13K
Liquidity
$34K
Bid / Ask
74% / 75%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
72%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?
December 2026
25 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
70% YES
Feb 25, 2026
Biggest move: +11.5pp
68% → 79%
Mar 5, 2026
Peak probability
86% YES — highest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Current
72% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-2.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?" at 75% YES / 25% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 72%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 75%, NO 25%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1345530
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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