Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 21?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

48%

Vol 24h$5K

Liquidity$0

ClosedApr 22, 2026

Macro fundamentals-1.8pp

low confidence · 1 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets24 markets

24 deadline markets. Combined YES = 483% — 383pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 21?

Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 21

100%

Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26?

Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26

88%

Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 21?

Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 21

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 21?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-26). "Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 21?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2039980