Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

First recorded

48% YES

Feb 25, 2026

Trough probability

41% YES — lowest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Feb 26, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 3, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 7, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 8, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 9, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 10, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 11, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 12, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 13, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

50%

Mar 14, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 15, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

49%

Mar 18, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 19, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: -10.5pp

59% → 49%

Mar 19, 2026

Peak probability

61% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

53% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026