Markets/Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026?

Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:06 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$18

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-16.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly16.7%

½ Kelly8.3%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 16.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1067178