Markets/Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?

Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?

Market Price

54%YES

46%NO

Vol 24h$551K

Liquidity$960K

ClosesMay 2, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets7 markets

7 deadline markets. Combined YES = 223% — 123pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02

79%

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02

71%

Brentford FC

Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02

54%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+1.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $551K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 53%. The market closes on May 2, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/2018984