Markets/Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$12K

Liquidity$61K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesJun 21, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets45 markets

45 deadline markets. Combined YES = 208% — 108pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Col

93%

Ivan Cepeda Castro

Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidenti

38%

Carlos Felipe Córdoba

Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian preside

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.3pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on June 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569374