Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$47K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
11% / 13%
Spread
1.20pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first…
2026
13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Mar 20, 2026
Biggest move: +7.3pp
2% → 9%
Mar 21, 2026
Current
9% YES (+7.3pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.2%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $47K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.20 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1365859
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Venue Divergence
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