Markets/Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$639K

Liquidity$16K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesOct 4, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets41 markets

41 deadline markets. Combined YES = 271% — 171pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second pla

Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in t

95%

Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th

Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first

65%

Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second

Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place i

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.3pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $639K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1365859