Markets/Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$34K

Liquidity$197K

ClosesApr 30, 2027

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market matters because Carole Delga's current 1% price suggests a negligible probability of her winning the 2027 French presidential election according to the prediction market. The surrounding election markets with 0% and 100% probabilities, while distinct events, highlight the diverse range of outcomes and confidence levels observed within event clusters.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets82 markets

82 deadline markets. Combined YES = 1207% — 1107pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2

Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 Fre

94%

Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 202

Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 Frenc

89%

Carole Delga

Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential electi

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $34K has been traded. The market closes on April 30, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679046