Markets/Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

12%YES

88%NO

Volume 24h

$40

Liquidity

$1K

Bid / Ask

10% / 14%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Current

7% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 12%99%

Buy YES@ 12¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 88¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $40 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/700386