Markets/Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$959

Bid / Ask

2% / 4%

Spread

1.80pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

50% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

24% YES — lowest in period

Mar 3, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 4, 2026

Biggest move: +25.0pp

24% → 49%

Mar 3, 2026

Peak probability

56% YES — highest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Current

53% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 4, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

Edge

+3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/693780