Markets/Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Market Price

20%YES

80%NO

FM Estimate

21%

Vol 24h$10K

Liquidity$22K

Bid / Ask19% / 21%

Spread2.00pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Macro fundamentals+1.0pp

Historical patterns-1.0pp

low confidence · 2 signals

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 19%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-02). "Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/789950