Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Closes November 3, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$92K
Liquidity
$30K
Bid / Ask
3% / 3%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in…
2026
23 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
13% YES
Mar 8, 2026
Trough probability
2% YES — lowest in period
Mar 18, 2026
Biggest move: -7.6pp
15% → 8%
Mar 8, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.2pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-6.3%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $92K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/628947
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.