Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Closes June 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -0.6pp below current market price; market at 5% may be overpriced driven by USA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$35K
Liquidity
$67K
Bid / Ask
5% / 5%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $35K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-13). "Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/604470
This event has 3 active outcome markets. end of 2026: 9%, June 30: 5%, June 30, 2026: 3%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~83%.
China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
5% YES
Apr 13, 2026
Current
5% YES (-0.8pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.4%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this