Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$346K
Liquidity
$493K
Bid / Ask
11% / 11%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2026
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
12% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Current
11% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $346K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/567621
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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