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Markets/Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
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Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES
97%NO

Volume 24h

$120K

Liquidity

$207K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

3%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $120K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-02). "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/956590

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2027: 21%, end of 2026: 10%, September 30, 2026: 6%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~61%.

China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
21%
China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
10%
China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
6%

China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

3%

Topic Intelligence

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket3%anchor
Manifold——

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Apr 2, 2026

Current

3% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Apr 2, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 3%99%
Buy YES@ 3¢

-6.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢
Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly6.3%
½ Kelly3.1%
Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 6.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this