Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Closes September 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.7pp below current market price; market at 6% may be overpriced with macro signals showing S&P +1.0% ↑, Oil +7.0% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$115K
Liquidity
$180K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $115K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on September 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1633606
This event has 5 active outcome markets. December 31, 2027: 21%, June 30, 2027: 14%, end of 2026: 10%. Implied probability of none resolving YES: ~46%.
China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Apr 5, 2026
Current
7% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 5, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+7.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this