Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Market Price
FM Estimate
1%The current 0% price of the Civic Platform winning the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, alongside a low 1% price for a similarly positioned political outcome in Colombia, suggests a significant underestimation of conventional political party outcomes by the market, particularly when contrasted with unrelated speculative events priced much higher. The lack of any positive price movement in this political market, irrespective of broader market volatility indicated by the VIX, further underscores the current lack of investor confidence in such established political entities.
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
✦ Unlock with ProWikipedia Attention
Price History · 30 days
Export CSVPrice History
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $86K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on September 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1129905