Markets/Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$12K

Liquidity$78K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesJun 21, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

Polymarket prices for Claudia López winning the 2026 Colombian presidential election stand at 0%, reflecting no perceived chance of victory, with no movement this week. This implies a strong consensus among prediction market participants that her candidacy, based on current pricing, is not a factor in the upcoming election.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets48 markets

48 deadline markets. Combined YES = 308% — 208pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Col

94%

Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st

Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round

59%

Claudia López

Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential el

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-0.3pp

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues

VenueProb.YES %vs Poly

Polymarket

0%anchor

PredictIt

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on June 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/569358