Markets/Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?

Market Price

1%YES

99%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$27K

Liquidity$221K

Bid / Ask1% / 1%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesApr 30, 2027

✦ Deep AI Analysis🔒 PRO

The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

✦ Unlock with Pro

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets47 markets

47 deadline markets. Combined YES = 208% — 108pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Javier Milei

Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential ele

49%

Axel Kicillof

Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential el

36%

Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential e

Price History · 30 days

Export CSV

Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $27K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on April 30, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679037