Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

Vol 24h$200K

Liquidity$714K

ClosedApr 25, 2026

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets17 markets

17 deadline markets. Combined YES = 800% — 700pp excess suggests collective overpricing.

Arsenal FC

Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25

100%

FC Barcelona

FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25

100%

Crystal Palace FC

Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-17.4pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $200K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on April 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-25). "Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1953313