Markets/Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$1K

Liquidity$76K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This prediction market is currently priced at 0%, indicating no perceived likelihood of Dan Caine leading Venezuela by the end of 2026. This reflects the overall sentiment across related markets, which show significant uncertainty or low probabilities for other political outcomes, with the exception of the 52% probability for Democratic Senate control in 2026.

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets14 markets

14 deadline markets. Market implies ~11% chance none resolve YES.

Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end

Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 202

62%

Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela en

Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 20

24%

Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2

Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026

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Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

+0.0pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1105753