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Markets/Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
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Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Closes June 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

54%YES
46%NO

Volume 24h

$163

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

53% / 55%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

54%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $163 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-01). "Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/907358

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

52% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

53% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 54%99%
Buy YES@ 54¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 46¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this