Markets/Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?

Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 12:29 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$61

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

4% YES

Feb 22, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

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From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $61 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1067180

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