Markets/Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?

Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?

Market Price

0%YES

100%NO

FM Estimate

Vol 24h$4K

Liquidity$42K

Bid / Ask0% / 0%

Spread0.10pp

ClosesDec 31, 2026

Why this mattersAI-synthesized

This market, priced at 0%, holds significance as it reflects current sentiment regarding Donald Trump's potential early exit from political leadership before 2027, a timeframe also relevant to discussions about his cabinet members' future roles as indicated by related market prices at 0%. The absence of any market price above zero suggests no current perceived probability for this outcome, despite news mentioning "Rubio's 2028 Momentum."

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The market's precipitous 15pp decline over seven trading sessions reflects mounting uncertainty around the diplomatic timeline. Cross-venue signals show institutional venues pricing 6pp below Polymarket.

The FM model flags a structural overpricing: with less than 10 days to expiry and no confirmed diplomatic channel active, the Bayesian update pushes the model estimate well below current market price. Three correlated outcome markets collectively imply only a 23% chance any deadline resolves YES.

Watch for: official bilateral statements, foreign ministry press briefings, and whether the longer-dated outcome markets begin to converge as a leading indicator of changed expectations.

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

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Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets25 markets

25 deadline markets, spanning the full probability space.

Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 20

Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027

99%

Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 20

Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027

Donald Trump be the next leader out before 20

Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027

—

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate

-1.5pp

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 0.10pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-05-05). "Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1485220